What is going on, everybody? How are we doing? This is the it and the D show episode 351. We are still in quarantine, even though we’re slowly getting back into business, cheers to all the bars and restaurants that got to open up today. A guest this week of the illustrious one, mr. Fred Brown. He was on about a month ago, actually. What about a month and a half ago? Right? When everything started breaking kind of educating us on COVID and what a better time to bring them back then, uh, cause all the madness going on right now with the doubts and misinformation and all this other stuff.
Oh. And let’s not forget all the bars and restaurants reopening and everybody believing it’s bar crawl day. Yeah. Let’s not forget.
Yeah. Hockey glass will save us all here to clear up all the madness and Dave, you know what you may fire when ready.
All right. Yeah. And Fred, since the last time, uh, we’ve decided we’re not playing the intro, uh, during these video sessions. So we’re not going to make you suffer through that again.
Okay. It was very inspiring. Welcome. And thank you for hanging out with us. This is the it, and the D show we are hanging out, uh, in our respective houses for the time being, this is episode three 51. This is Bob, the sales guy that is Dave, the geek, Randy. I do the Twitters is doing the Twitter, find it online it and the d.com and do us a favor, give us a like on the socials and subscribe to us everywhere. Fine podcasts are sold.
And uh, yeah. So this is usually where we talk about the events and we have not put any back on the calendar just yet. Uh, but now that things are starting to open up, we will be looking at doing so. Um, I know our buddy Neil was at, uh, where we were supposed to be having our first event that got canceled Del Ray cozy lounge. Uh, so we’ll be reaching out to them and seeing how things are going and maybe go back there. Uh, and then we’ll work on the Anarbor events as well. But yeah, so it’s a, they’re they’re, they’re coming soon and, uh, and, and, and look, and look and listen to, I listened to Bob with his, uh, with his new microphone. Sounded all good and stuff.
Yeah. I’m not all that. It doesn’t sound like I’m in the toilet. If you’re not watching the show. I think I got an idea for our next event that we should all wear, like those kitty life preservers and like all handout, like, uh, so, so we have this, see the distance like around our waists. Oh, you mean like the hip waders? Yes. Yeah, exactly. Like this, just like you slide them over your head, like life preservers. And I was like, what’s that going to hit? Not like a hospital, a we’ll we’ll do the whole thing. We’ll where the, uh, the face shields with the windshield wiper, the big Brown thing around our waist life preservers.
I think we, uh, we need the giant burger King hats, the giant burger King crowns from Germany. We need to find our way to get our hands on those,
but Hey, a Fred’s already getting a patient where we are. If you didn’t hear the pre-roll, we’re very, very lucky to have mr. Fred Brown back with us. Uh, I would consider how do we introduce you politely without a, uh, I guess you are all things, um, I guess why don’t you go ahead and introduce yourself before I stick my foot in my mouth any further? Oh, well,
I, I work a little bit in epidemiology and infectious disease. I’ve done. Gosh, I, I started doing the work back in 1985. We, uh, I was on the team that discovered the first and then developed the first AIDS test, uh, for HIV, uh, detecting HIV. And unfortunately at the time we, uh, had a test, but we didn’t have any cure as a little bit similar to what we have with Qubit right now. But, uh, you know, HIV is at that point was really a deadly, you know, much more deadly than, than, than it is. And so most people after we developed the test didn’t want one. And so what we did is we actually developed it for the blood serum and we can’t, we tested all the blood. So people wouldn’t be getting diseased from the blood. And then I went, uh, and started, uh, a little company called Alkermes.
And we did quite a bit of work in delivering, uh, new drugs across the blood brain barrier, which was a challenge. And then I basically helped develop a 27 major drugs and 13 diagnostic products and seven or eight vaccines in my career. So you have kids in a, you know, in, uh, who, uh, who, uh, were born in the 1990s ’em up, they probably were, were vaccinated and they have had vaccines. Then they would probably vaccinated with some of the work that I did. And most people who have been to an emergency room, public took, had drugs that I take. And most people who have cancer have taken some of the drugs that I developed as well. So that’s some of the back on it.
I speak on behalf of all of us. We’re very lucky to have you with us and thank you for your time.
Yeah, it’s a pleasure. I mean, he’s, he’s got a lot more credit than most of our, you know, our, our common guest in eighties, D-list celebrities. I mean, that’s
so I don’t know, Dave, I got a hundred questions. Dave, you have a hundred questions, Randy, you have a hundred questions, I guess we all flip a coin, Dave, I guess start off you a fired a few off an email. Why don’t you, uh, I guess fire off one we’ll we’ll play round Robin.
Well, yeah, so, I mean, I guess let’s, let’s start with obviously the, the big one. So, you know, Michigan’s bars and restaurants are reopening today, um, or reopened today, uh, you know, a lot of them, uh, I know quite a few places that, uh, that, that were opened at midnight, uh, to get that two hour Russian. Uh, so I mean, from your perspective, you know, what should people be paying attention to? And, and, and by people, I mean, both patrons and staff, you know, owners, you know, that kind of thing, like what, what should we be keeping in mind as these rules are relaxing? Because I mean, I, no joke, my Facebook feed was just littered with people, checking in at bars today and, and everything else. And, and so I, yeah, I’m, I’m curious as to what your thoughts are there.
So they’re basically four, four things you want to think about. We can go into the tail if you like as well. The first thing is your own personal health. So you, are you feeling good? And as you know, we started off with about four major, uh, diagnostics for the disease. The first one was, if you had a fever 88 of the time, you had a fever that was indicative of, of COVID. Unfortunately that’s a very, uh, you know, it’s a sensitive test, but it’s not very specific. You can have pretty broad yeah. Were for a lot of different reasons. I mean, we had a, you know, shortness of breath was a big one and a dry cough. Wasn’t another big one. And there’s also some cognitive issues that we felt were issue issues. Now we’ve actually got about 12 different ways of diagnosing and I’ve got a list of them. I can, I can show you if you’re interested. I’ll just show it to you quickly. Uh, I have it here.
This isn’t the right deck, but we can get there one second and
Yeah. You got a dialog box up. You’re not doing anything until you kill that off. Oh, sorry. [inaudible], we’ll save this. Thank you. That’s the benefit of being in the room with three it guys. Beautiful.
Let’s see. Here, there, we are open that up and see where we are. So the major, major, uh, diagnostic factors, uh, now we’ve got loss of smell and taste. That was a new one. We weren’t expecting that at all. That’s a very rare for a coronavirus, uh, of any kind to kind of create a loss of smell. The dry cough continued at 68%. We were just thought it was 66%, but it was 68%. Fatigue is a big one. If you’re really feeling very tired out. Uh, and, uh, despite getting a lot of sleep, that was a big one. It turns out there was some student production, the shortness of breath continued at about 20%. And then there was a whole mass of smaller things that we found out that it was a little bit broader indication levels than we thought. So the first question you want to ask yourself before, before you go is what sputum protection production
slam. Bob. You want to go by an expectorant, let’s just say that you want, you want to be feeling good when you go out. And if you have any of those things,
dumps that, then see it, you know, cause again, we’ll get a test and check it out and make sure you’re doing good. Uh, so that’s the first big question. That’s the next big question you have to ask is what your own personal level of, of risk is. And, um, you know, for guys like me, I I’m older. And so I actually have a higher level of risk and I like to admit, I can show you that quickly as well. Here are the different factors and you can see it really, it really hype so quick. Um, uh, with, uh, with these,
I have a feeling we’re not going to like this chart, Bob [inaudible]. So let me see,
there was a slideshow slide. So if you’re, if you’re basically under 40, um, you’re, you know, you’re, you’re in pretty good shape. Um, unless you’re saying smoking have had, and I’ve had a major disease like cancer or haven’t, haven’t had bad ass, um, then, then I think it’s, it’s relatively safe, uh, to be out and about much more. So say than when, when you get into, you know, my, my area, which I’m, you know, on the 4% side, uh, of a mortality rate. And by the time you get to my mom’s age, I gotta really be careful. Cause she’s, you know, she’s talking about, uh, uh, know one, one in five chance of dying. If she, if she comes up with it, if you’ve got a slide up, go ahead and share it. Oh, I’m sorry. I’m I’m making all sorts of mistakes tonight. I apologize.
No problem. Here we are. I will hear that up. How does that look? There you go. Yeah. So, you know, basically you can see if you’re, if you’re under 40, um, the chances of, of being killed by, by, by COBIT, aren’t, aren’t zero, but they’re a lot better than if you’re say in your sixties, seventies or eighties, by the time you’re 60, you gotta really think pretty closely about whether you want to get into a high, high risk situation. Especially if you’ve got these underlying conditions like cardiovascular disease, which a lot of us have and diabetes, you can get a sense of, you know, with no underlying condition. And you know, when you’re younger, you know, you’re talking about a 0.7 0.5% mortality rate kind of thing. Uh, once you get, you know, over, over, over 50, you’re talking about two to 3%. Um, uh, and by the time we get to my mom’s age, as I said, you know, you’re talking about a one in five chance of dying.
It turns out once you get over over 60, the males die a lot faster than females. And unfortunately, as we, as we, as we know, if the city does play a role, there is no genetic role that we’ve found so far, but it’s the socioeconomic conditions that are causing, especially black people to be dying at about three times the rate of the rest of us and getting the disease about two times the rate as the rest of us. So, so do these factors stack. So if you’re 80 plus and have CLPD, are you yeah, 28%. That’s right. And they don’t stack exactly. You’ve got to multiply two by the 0.7 underlying condition number, uh, through, but you know, say that you’re a 60 year old man with diabetes. You gotta, you got a 4.1, 3% chance. So you start with a 0.7 and start to add on the factors for the, of the additional factors.
So yeah, it’s, uh, it gets so, you know, so that’s the second big thing. First week thing is already feeling good before you go out. Second big thing is what is my personal risk factor? Um, cause if you get it, no, I think driving a car, you gotta want a one and 700 chance of, of, of, of crashing and dying here. You’re talking about something that’s worse if you catch it. So you got, so that’s, uh, uh, that’s the next big factor personally, and you want to kind of assess your, your, your, your, your level and the, and there’s there, there are a little, you can use the mobile phone. Uh, I created a little app that says, you know, here’s my situation. I’ve got diabetes and I’ve got, you know, heart disease. I’ve got hypertension and I’m 70, you know, what are my chances? And it’ll, it’ll give you a number,
stay home. That’s what it’ll say. Just be really, really, I make sure it’s worth it. Do you have, do you have one of those giant hamster bubbles? That would be great. Hey, Fred, I really walk it into this. When, when Dave told me you’re going to be on, I got all excited because literally my, my head’s been spinning from information slash slash misinformation, and I’m going to run some scenarios of everything that I’ve been hearing. And I want you to tell me what’s real. Cause it’s driving me nuts. So, you know, hold on, hold on. Just say you’ve got two more, right? I have two more. Sorry. We’ll just quickly. I’ll go through. I’m sorry.
The third thing is what is the general level of COVID in your environment? And now we’ve got all sorts of little weather forecasts and COBIT announcements that says here’s what it looks like. It looks like. So in Michigan, our worst environments are Kent County, McComb County, Oakland County, and Wayne County. Those have the highest incidences of Kobe generally in the environment. If you’re up in the UPP, not bad, if you’re down below, say Gaylord, you’ve got to start getting a little bit more nervous. And as you get more toward, uh, grand Rapids or Detroit, you gotta be more careful than you would in the more rural environments. And then the last factor is the activity itself. And, uh, I’ve got a funny survey. I’ll I’ll, I’ll share with you guys. The epidemiologists all got together, the research epidemiologists, the United States, and we did a survey among ourselves saying, you know, what, what, what, what, what are, what, what were we willing to do?
And you’ll find it sort of amusing. I think that the I’ll show it, share it with you later with just so it’s the, it’s how you feeling yourself. What’s your personal risk factor? What’s the general level of COVID in your environment and how dangerous is the activity that I’m planning to do? How is it relative to the other stuff? So if you go out for a walk in the park, uh, with low, low levels population, probably not too bad, if you’re planning to see in a closed up bar, we know for a lengthy period of time and you have a high risk, you want to think that through pretty carefully, right?
All right. Now, Bob go, yay. No, so
everything, I mean, I try to read as much as I can from as many different sources I can. And you know, basically my, my, the week over the last couple of weeks has gone like this, like who says this this week. And then who says that this week CDC says this this week, then they say something else. Then there’s health experts on this news channel that says, you can do this, but you can’t do that. And then on the other channel, they say, you can do that, but you can’t do this. And then, you know, everyone on social media is I call it the Corena virus, the Karen of virus, shaming of activities. They don’t apply. They don’t deem appropriate. Right. Um, and so basically I’m caught in this, like, and then Fowchee says this, and then the president says that, and then the press, the president secretary says this, like, literally I’m caught in the middle of what the hell? Like, what do I do? I just sit. I just I’ll just keep sitting in my chair. Like, I don’t know what to do anymore. Like who do I guess, who do you listen to her? What’s what’s right. And what’s wrong these days.
So I usually go back to the scientific literature myself, you know? So I’ll take a look and see what’s been quoted and what the evidence is. So we ha we, and, and the, and the challenge has been lately that some of the scientific literature that normally you can’t really trust, uh, has, you know, 60 different coauthors. Everyone is partnering with each other. They don’t really know each other that well anymore. And the pure review tends to happen after the publication. Now, before you guys all get together and say, wait a minute, but now you sort of have to make that assessment for yourself every time. And these stuff get this good stuff gets published fast. And then of course, it’s, it’s a prominent group and you want to get it out there. And wow. You know, so it’s, it’s a, it’s a, it’s sort of a wild West, right?
I believe in the it world, that’s what we call testing and production. See, I was going to say, every engineer puts in their own change control. That’s how I was going to, you know, [inaudible] whichever way. But like, so, I mean, that was the whole point of science. I always thought was science always evolve. Science always changes. There’s always people with different theories, but like, you know, like you all were trying to look for the Bible, the gospel what’s the truth. And it seems to change depending on the wind. Um, and that’s why, you know, like we, we all want to be safe. We want to all keep our families safe. But like at the same token, we’re like, wait a minute. Like, you know what I mean? Like,
Oh, I know, I know. So there, there’s a couple of things that are, are also influencing it. For example, there’s, there are a couple of big programs that we have recently that everyone was talking about, uh, the Madrona vaccine, you know, and it’s hurt you. The way you create these clinical trials is you can do it in a couple different ways. One is to have a large enough sample size where you can actually do, uh, an open up the dataset, look at it, and that affect the power of the ultimate answer. And so what Madrona did in order to help, I think their, you know, their, their stock price, obviously they’re a publicly held company. They decided to, you know, open up parts of their datasets early, be able to announce that, and then, you know, force us to wait for the rest of the data later.
So, uh, what happened was everyone looked at it and said, wait a minute, we’re only, you know, you guys tested 45 patients. You only opened up the data set on eight. And so it’s very hard nor normally we’d see the whole dataset. Everything would have been peer reviewed. We would have, you know, and instead it was sort of controlled by a business group, you know, business communications person out of scientist. And it was controlled their business publication, not, you know, science or Lancet or, uh, you know, uh, necessarily a journal that you did that you’d expect. Right? So that’s another additional complicating piece because people are competing for, um, trying to say their drug is good enough that we’re going to do something special with it. And especially in the vaccine space, they’re trying to bet that the vaccine will work before they’ve proven it. There’s gonna be enough data that says that’s suggestive, that we’re going to put in two, three, $4 billion into a manufacturing plant, uh, before we even know for sure that the thing is safe and efficacious. So gonna be some big bets laid down, and we have to know that early enough to make those bets work. So we don’t have to wait for the vaccine if it’s successful. I mean, is there some big factors out there?
So, I mean, is, is science suffering from the same issue that like media and journalism in general are where it’s more about first than, right.
Well, in, in, in this case, there’s enough, there’s enough shots on goal that if you’re first and wrong, uh, it’ll be pretty clear, pretty fast. And, and the guy coming in behind that, on the net with the next shot, I go, we’ll still have a good chance in some instances where there’s too big of a gap, uh, then, uh, sometimes, you know, first, first makes right. It gets you, it gives us the most market here, typically in pharmaceuticals. You know, there’s a big race. Usually the first person to market gets 40 to 60% market share and, and retains that market share even when the next sets of, of, of, of, of solutions come on stream. So it, you know, 46%, it’s a big, and then the next, you know, number two gets 30% market share and number three gets maybe 10 or 15% and then number four or five. So you, you know, you’re done, you’re fighting over scraps. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So that’s, that’s a usual market situation in pharmaceuticals. And so there is a lot of pressure to be fast, but in this case, there’s 10 vaccines that are supposed to be ready to at least be looked at in phase three clinical testing by, you know, November, December, January of this year.
So Bob, just to like, I guess a good specific example of what you were just talking about. So, you know, early on it was, uh, okay, even if you’re asymptomatic, you can absolutely pass this on to people. Um, it’s, you know, that’s a big deal. So even if you’re asymptomatic still be careful today, the who comes out and says, well, as it turns out, asymptomatic carriers, you know, isn’t, you, you’re probably, that’s probably not a distribution mechanism.
That’s interesting that who did that, who come out today? I, I wasn’t aware of that. Um, because I literally just came out a bit ago. I’ll have to take a look at that. I look at the data, uh, because we know one of the challenges of the drug is that a lot of the scientists think that there is a lot of asymptomatic transmission, uh, not because, um, well, and then the two reasons for that. Uh, so I, I just, I I’m surprised by that conclusion, uh,
act Josh, I’ll show you another slide if you want to take a look. Okay. Um, and that slide is about diagnostics themselves, and it’s sort of interesting how imprecise we are right now, still, unfortunately. So if you look at the different tests that are available, yeah. It’s an important for people to realize this. Um, so did I share it? Can you see it? Yep. Got it. All right. So,
well, that’s the fatality rates again,
here’s diagnosing COVID. So it turns out that if you think you got exposed from COVID. So my daughter was, uh, she was protesting in Chicago this week, uh, much to my unhappiness for a whole number of reasons out there. Um, and, uh, and she wants now to get tested to make sure she didn’t get a COBIT. And I said, well, that’s great, but you’re going to have to wait about five and a half days. Um, in order to really know what she get to give your best chance of knowing whether you’ve got COVID or not. So it turns out that if you think you might’ve gotten exposed, like you got on a plane and you want to go visit your elderly grandmother, and you’re concerned that on the plane, you might’ve been exposed, even though you’ve been good at home, uh, you know, uh, for, for two weeks, uh, then believe it or not, you probably shouldn’t see your grandmother for 14 days, uh, uh, because of the asymptomatic issues that we’ve dealt with it.
Well, it’s, I mean, that’s what, uh, that’s the law or the rule that Hawaii passed. Um, they got, they got tired of everyone flying there because the flights were so cheap. And so they mandated a 14 day quarantine, um, and actually had a, they started and ran a fund where, you know, if, if you weren’t, if you really planning on being there for a week, they would basically pay to, you know, change your ticket and send you back home.
Same thing with UK. If you go to the United Kingdom out of it, unless you get an air corridor, this isn’t an air corridor exemption. You’re going to have to wait for 14 days to enter the country. Um, and if you’re from coming in, so here on this, on this chart shows two different kinds of basic tests. The first test is in the solid line, the solid lines are the molecular and editing testing that actually tests whether you’ve got an active virus. And basically if you test three days after you’ve been exposed and you have a fuller nasal pharyngeal swab, and you go to Harvard and you get tested, they’re only saying it 40% of the time, they can detect it after that’s, after three days, if you wait for four days, there’s a 70% chance that you can detect it. And if you wait for five and a half days, that’s sort of the [inaudible] detection period of time at that point, uh, you, um, uh, we have about an 80, 84% chance of detecting it.
And that’s about as good as it gets. You are in the hospital, you know, on an operating table and something inserted into your lungs to get what they call a Brocky, uh, bronchitis, uh, uh, alveolar Luvata or sputum directly from your lungs. And then you get a 92% chance, but there’s a big difference between what they publish, which is the, the, the analytical capability of a test, or just like 99.9, 5%. And the actual clinical experience that you have, because that once you take that swab, the first question is, did you get, get the right part of the nose, a little part of the, uh, to be at the right part of the lung?
Did you tickle the STEM of the brain properly? Yeah.
Make sure he got all, you got it all mixed up with the right in the right reagents and you gotta send it off and then you got to do the test, but that’s just to be done just right. And by the time we go through all that, it’s about 80 or 85%, you know, true positive breaks.
Dave, didn’t you say your favorite was the stool sample one. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah.
Hey, you know, that, that stool sample is turning out to be somewhat helpful. If you want to look at community spread, it’s about 55% accurate, uh, you know, uh, sensitive, um, uh, and specific overall. Um, and, and what’s interesting is if you have every day you’re taking, so the effluent charges of a building or of a particular area, you can tell whether or not there there’s, there’s antibody building up in a particular population, and then you can go back and you can test that particular population with the more specific tests, more sensitive tests, uh, and actually, you know, find the people and the reasons it’s so important is that this, um, that is, is that we do think at least, uh, I have to look at that who article that’s an interesting new, uh, new,
well, so here’s, let me, let me read you the quote. So it’s a, from dr. Maria van Krakow, um, who said, uh, head of who’s emerging disease and zoonosis unit, uh, from the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmit onward to a second individual and then follows up with it’s very rare. Now she had, does immediately follow that. And of course they don’t really highlight this quote as much, um, where she says absolutely more research and data are needed to truly answer the question of whether or not asymptomatic carriers can spread it. Um,
yeah, so that that’s important. She didn’t say presymptomatic, if she had, has she said presymptomatic and asymptomatic, then I would have questioned it because it turns out with your, your, your, the biggest amount of virus you’ve got that it’s shedding happens about two and a half days after being, after being, um, uh, after being exposed. So if he had said, and we think of asymptomatic rate about 25%, it ranges between 20 and 50%, depending on who you’re talking about. So eventually, you know, 80% of the time you’ll come down with symptoms, uh, 80 say 75, 80% of the time will come down with some symptoms that you are at least we’re right here.
Well, I was gonna say, even if they’re, you know, that that first chart you threw up there, I mean, a lot of those symptoms are, Hey, I’ve got a, or, Hey, I’ve got the flu or it’s allergy season in Michigan.
So as, as we get as become more, as we’ve become more aware, more educated, he, he could be right that, you know, the asymptomatic rate of transmission is going to be lower because we’re going to recognize that Quebec, I could have colon COVID and isolate appropriately. So can you, she may be right about that. I’d like to look at the dataset that she was looking at, because most of my colleagues are saying, we still think there’s some asymptomatic spread to, uh, to this. And so if you can imagine a stool sample, the, the, the issue we’ve got,
I just, I just want to, God bless you. And it just bless you for having an actual scientific answer for Bob’s dumb ass comment. I just, I, I respect you so much for this
are critical. Well, it turns out they’re more important than we thought they would be, uh, because this particular virus has a very, what they call low key value. And K value is about a lot of clustering that occurs that in order to transmit the disease, cause it’s an R value. Everyone talks about it says one person gets it two and a half people Morgan. And so on. It turns out that isn’t exactly the way that virus, this particular virus works. This particular virus really works a lot more with super spreading, so super spreading by location, who we’re spending by activity super spreading by individual. So it turns out that, um, you know, one guy in Italy actually gave the disease in two days to 761 people. And he was, he was a super spreader. It turns out there’s some,
I think I had an X like that.
Yeah. We don’t know enough about literacy to figure this out. So what’s nice about the stool sample is if you get starting to get community spread, you can try to isolate, um, more with, uh, and try to find that that super spreading location activity or person, uh, faster than we can normally. Cause unfortunately we don’t have very good contact rates and a lot of countries have really invested a lot contact tracing. We don’t have have that as well established yet. We’re going to get there, but it’ll take some time, but no, we’re not quite as good as say Taiwan where they’re really good.
So, I mean, I guess that leads to it. So our waste treatment plants, like kind of on the front lines of this, and I know, and is, is this maybe one of the issues with, I’m just thinking like, you know, you’ve seen like lower, like the lower earlier numbers or lower numbers in rural areas where you may have a lot of homes on septic systems. Um, so you’re not getting, you know, community data you’re, you know, it’s still one offs. Like, so I mean, yeah, I mean our, our waste and water treatment plants kind of on the frontline to this now
it’s a waste of, uh, yes, but even more so maintenance, uh, operations. So you can imagine, you know, collection areas of, uh, around buildings and that actually are isolated back all the way to a building. You can get to that point and in some situations, but yes, your answer is, yeah, they’re, they’re becoming more important than, than I originally thought they were going to be sort of interesting.
Uh, we have a couple of comments from our, uh, Facebook who are watching the video live. Um, if you have
tested positive for antibodies, what is, what does that mean? How are you immune or not? How long are you moving if you are? Yes, that is a great, that is a very valuable answer question. Um, so this that’s the second test it’s up here. I’ll just show you, you should absolutely continue to stay at home for as long as possible. So here’s, here’s that here’s the same, here’s that same slide again. And the dotted line, the dotted line tests, um, are the antibody tests and this one shows two of them. Uh, it shows the, uh, the IgG, which is the important one that, that actually is a longterm antibody that converse some immunity we think. And then the IgM that signals the body, Hey, there’s something going on here. So antibodies are, as you know, they, they, they, they arise because you’ve got a foreign object that attacking your body.
And what’s interesting is if you’re one year old and if something attacks you and then, you know, 90 years later, you’re, you’re sort of, you know, wheeling and yourself around the retirement home and they test, they can find that antibody back when you’re one year old. So that, that has a permanent sort of tattoo in your system that, that, that, that go away now that the effectiveness of that antibody won’t be as strong when your ideas is when it just a couple of weeks after you’ve been infected. But, uh, but it’ll still be there. So you can still detect whether you’ve ever been infected by the disease. As you can see this, this line goes up to about 70%. So right now our best antibody detection systems detect about 70% of the time, a false, uh, we’ll we’ll, we’ll, we’ll, we’ll be accurate 70% time, but it also means that 30% of the time you may think that you’ve got antibodies and you really don’t.
So you want to make sure, uh, my recommendation is, is take this test a few times before you go out and try to be Superman. Uh, I would say three times right now, uh, and there are different tests for the antibody Roche’s is the most accurate, or if those is also highly accurate, Abbott’s a little bit less accurate, but faster. So depending on how, you know, how fast you want to go and so on, uh, and, and the accuracy level and the kind of test is being done. But basically there are a couple of things you can do once you’ve had a positive, uh, antibody response. The first is you just want to find out whether you have any immune response. Now we’re looking at that pretty carefully, uh, because we’re ruling for plastic proteins that will actually, or they call neutralize, uh, these, uh, the, the virus.
And those are rare to find. We think we found a couple that complex was a virus and make it, make it an ex sort of, uh, inhibit its path to the cells and then reduces infection rate. We haven’t found that many that actually, no, come on and just kill a thing. Uh, we’re looking at something called DARPA, which is sort of interesting. It comes from a malaria, but we haven’t found that much. I I’m working with some of the guys who were at Rockefeller and some of the guys who are at Stanford, and we’re, we’re a little bit disappointed in the number of we take. And so if you, if you’ve been infected and you want to contribute, um, let me know
when I can sit, certainly set you up, uh, to, to donate your blood and they’ll take a big bag of it and then decide, tell you what kind of antibodies
it’s again, it’s Mike, you can absolutely drain him. We’re, we’re totally good with that. He will, uh, on his behalf, we will, we will donate him to science. That’s absolutely fine.
[inaudible] are, these are, these are done at very at, are they called P three labs? So they’re, you know, super infection disease. And then as far as infectious disease goes, you know, P three before that’s, you know, you’re, you’re talking about outer space type of, of sterility, uh, environments, you know, uh, I, you know, it looks like, it looks like the neck, uh, you know, the, the, the alien Malians are attacking. When you go to those labs, they, what they do is they take, they take the blood and they actually take live virus and they check and they check out whether or not the virus was being affected by any of the antibodies they found in the book. And then what they do is if they find some good, if you find that your blood is good, they’ll give these what they call plasma therapy options.
Convalescent therapy is another word for it. And they’ll inject injected. The healthcare workers will inject with people who are very ill and these antibodies will help them give them a boost, temporary boost. Do you want to do it more often? You have to what they call monoclonal antibodies. They actually take the antibody that it’s working instead of giving you a, was all the antibodies. They’ll, they’ll highlight one or two. And that’s what we’re looking for. One or two that really are strong and actually synthesize it in, in, in cell culture and create monoclone. And then they’ll, you know, they’ll actually inoculate it with an oxygen. And so it produces these antibodies all the time. And, um, and, and, uh, that’s, that’s a, uh, they call it, it’s a cell line. That’s an Nicola, an immortal cell line. And this immortal cell lines produce just nothing but produce to anybody or at least take them out. And we’re able to very precisely target the people with the antibody. So that’s the next level of therapy we’re not there yet. We right now, we’re still working with cocktails and spun down plasma, but we’ll get there and it’ll, it should be helpful. So there’s our,
yeah, there was a story that came out today also, or yesterday there was a scientist in Norway basically came out and said there were convinced, wrote a report that, uh, that it was lab made in China. Um, I know we had, uh, origin story. We didn’t really, you know, we were all over the board again. Um, what is, uh, I guess what’s your take on that? See, now it’s funny. It was on Forbes and I went to go click on it and it said, the pages look no longer active. I wonder if
I know, right. That’s why I can’t figure anything out. What’s what’s right. What’s wrong. I swear to God, that’s what it said. That’s what happened. I drastic Laura flora
couldn’t that there were a couple of big announcements that Hydrox made plugin wasn’t working. And then they found out the scientist had used a lab that really wasn’t didn’t do the work with the chiropractor I should have. And now that now it’s back being tested again, so that that’s going to happen a bunch of all, but basically most scientists, so nothing is impossible,
right? It could have been done in the, uh, in, in, in a lab. Uh, and there are some Nobel laureates that are absolutely convinced that they’ve found, you know, pieces of HIV basis of this space, of that, uh, virus that they think is highly suspicious. Um, that would indicate that maybe they were looking for an HIV vaccine. Cause a lot of us are working on HIV vaccines, right? Wouldn’t it be great to have a vaccine for that stupid thing finally. Um, and, but then we still roll out 10 years out. So they’re, you know, people are working with, with different kinds of vectors and then putting in HIV, uh, HIV, uh, proteins into the vector to see if that’ll work, they create a vaccine. So that’s most plausible explanation of how it could possibly be that they were working with a virus like this that could be released.
It’s highly, highly unlikely. What’s much more probable is that, um, that we had a, a shift in a drift. So what happens with these, uh, what’s happened to these DNA sequences that are in the viruses. They is, they, uh, as they, as they shifted drift, that means basically that they can, they can, uh, go into a bat. And we think what happened was it went into a bat. It started in a bat. It was then got to go ahead and do a pinion community. Hanging community shifted the DNA slightly. Uh, it was a normal grown virus into that. And the thing we community chipped with DNA slightly. And then we had some drift occurring in the, in the, in the DNA sequences would cause this funny virus to occur. That’s a far more, it turns out biologically it’s a far, far more likely scenario than, than, than a P for lab, which, which, which, which this wasn’t a mistake in the releasing something. Now it’s a brand new before lab. They were still training their people. There were some, you know, there were some safety reports that said, these guys aren’t doing exactly the right thing, but even then we tend to use, uh, you know, deactivated viruses and just as highly, highly unlikely. And then the people who run that lab, you know, I I’ve met with them a few times. They’re very, they’re, they’re some of the best, best immunologists and invest just at best people in the world and in the space. Right.
So I’ll just, I’m just scanning that article, Fred. And I was like, uh, it was dismissed by experts. So it’s like, well, I’m not the person that wrote it was the expert. Cause it was proven. And now it’s, they’re proving. It’s not proven. So again, that’s where I get. I’m sitting here at home, just shaking my head because I’m reading this then it’s then it’s, it’s like watching the, a, the Pluto’s a planet episode of Rick and Morty that’s yet to come guys, one Nobel prize in the HIV field who believe we’re absolutely convinced
that it was, uh, it was, uh, one of the guys in France. You don’t want that States who are convinced. And they’re very, they’re very, very prominent people in the field, you know, Nobel prize winners who are convinced that this was a something that happened by the chains, but it’s just, if you talk to most epidemiologists, most to be analogous, most neurologists who are, you know, serious about the field, it’s like, no one really believes it. And if it is, it’s such a small chance that it’s it’s to be at a disbelief. So I give it a small percent chance. There’s always a chance, but probably highly, highly, highly unlikely.
All right. So I promised Frank, I would get this one in. And I, I told him I would even quote him. He said, Hey, are the memes that are floating around that say the mask you’re wearing does virtually nothing to protect you, but it protects the other guy accurate. So if I’m wearing a mask, but others aren’t, I’m protecting these dipshits and they’re infecting me.
We know that that’s an excellent summary of the three different kinds of masks that you should be aware of. The first mask is the mask that we all have access to. And that’s a mask that is, is, is basically, uh, it’s basically layers of,
uh, ripped up t-shirt that’s been folded. Yeah.
Yeah. And it turns out this is material’s important. So, so the material that you use is important. If you use like one ply of sill, it’s only about 20% effective, but if you use like five Plaza, so it gets about 80% effect. If you use it one or two plies of cotton, a flannel, it’ll be, you know, 60, 70%. If you use three or four plots, it’ll get about knitting, knitted, crochet with holes in it like Alyssa Milano. That’s not going to work. No,
you do the hand, the hand to God do to hand to God. I went to Lowe’s the other day. And literally everybody in the store was wearing a mask, which I was really happy to see. Um, however, the guy that was running back and forth with carts, uh, that was one of the story. Employees just basically had like a big like cable knit with big, giant holes in it. Wool scarf wrapped around his head. And I was like, Oh, Oh, that’s not how this works. That’s not how any of this works, but Hey, good for trying good.
So this, this is a typical man. I just, I just happened to have one here. And, and what you want to do is you want to put it over your ears and you want to, you want to talk it in. You want to pull it down this way underneath and make sure see how it, how it’s going to be in and out like that. And the reason it’s doing it is because you want to make a nice don’t, don’t do it like that. It could break the metal, but it’s like this. And that’s, that’s a pretty tight seal. You have a little bit coming out this way, but the idea is that you’re stopping your breath and the person who is wearing the mask on the other side is stopping their breath. And collectively you can reduce the amount of transition by up to six fold.
Well, and then for, for people like me, that wear glasses, then you put your glasses on over that. And that’s what keeps it from fogging up.
That’s right. No, that’s a, that’s a big issue. There, there, there are a couple of things you don’t want to do with the math, right? The first thing you don’t want to do with a mask is touch it particularly cause it’s blocking stuff. So you’d want it when you take it on long, you want to use your, you want to use it up here. I will just show you this, this, and I see a lot of people doing it. Cause it’s
is not, is useless. I’ll just tell you all this stuff comes right through your nose and through your mucus membrane. So this is not very effective. I think the a, the best analogy I’ve seen is that’s the equivalent of wearing your pants, buckled around your thighs like that. Yeah.
And when you take it off, you just come behind and I take it off and then you fold it down and you throw it out right away. I don’t, don’t put it down. And you were like, I’ve just done, but it doesn’t, you know, just throw it out. And you’re all set the same thing with gloves. I don’t know if I got any gloves, but you know how to put on an off gloves, right? I mean, what you do is you put them on very carefully when you take them off, um, you, you, you, you grab it from down. Uh, ah, I do have a glove hold everything. I’ll show you. So the walls can be useful if you don’t want to wash your hands all the time.
So don’t, don’t lick your fingers and you’re pulling apart the fruit bags, right? If the grocery store do not be that guy in the produce aisle, Bob, no, you avoid it, but do not touch your face, right. Or cut the mask in the middle, like that lady at the gas station. Yeah. I see. I see people with like their, their mouth exposed and they’re no, no, they’re not from Victoria’s secret. They are not crotchless panties. It’s a mask you’re supposed to be taking this seriously. Yeah. And you know what? You’re having trouble with. The mask.
Women are having trouble with the vests. They’re getting like, they’re getting, so I got my gloves on, right? The way, the way. So the way you pull them on, you put them on, hold on, all of your fingers, take them off. You just grab the bottom. Right. And you try to avoid touching anything else. And you just pull them up over your fingers. Right. Then you put that one in this hand, right over your fingers, right? Everything is, everything is one bundle and you throw it out. You’re done. But taking out and off this protective gear is really important. The doctors, you know, practice it. Sometimes we watch each other, make sure they haven’t touched and exposed themselves inadvertently. So that’s one type of mask. That’s the, that’s the first type of mask. The second type of mask is a surgical mask. The surgical mask is much more comfortable and it’s better.
It’s about 75% effective and reducing, you know, uh, your, uh, your breath. Um, and it’s, uh, it’s more breathable. It works not by the density of this, of the, of the material. It works actually by electrostatic, uh, uh, uh, attraction. So it actually takes the molecules and, and, and pulls them into the fabric. Uh, and it also is in fact, more effective because it blocks liquid cause it’s made for blood. You know, if you’re a surgeon, if a surgeon gets splattered, uh, it blocks the liquid, uh, contamination, which is, which is also can be very helpful if you’re around a real sick person, the last kind of mass actually PR uh, and this is answering your question. This actually protects both you and the person across from you. It’s the [inaudible] baths. And the reason that it’s, that it’s, um, protects both of you is because it actually completely filters out. It’s got a filtration system and most, as long as there’s no available on it, but the ones with valves on it are much more comfortable for the user to wear, but that just push it, all the stuff that you’re exhaling right out into the environment. And that’s extremely dangerous,
right. So, I mean, at the end of the day, like the cloth mask and that kind of stuff, that you’re, that you typically see everybody walking around in. Cause that’s what we have access to. And that’s what we can get our hands on it. That’s, I mean, his question is accurate. You’re you’re, you’re not wearing it for yourself. You’re wearing it for other people.
That’s right. And so everyone’s wearing it, then everyone’s being fair and you know, you’re, you’re cool. If you’re, if you’re the only guy not wearing the mask, then you’re the guy being protected everywhere else. It’s not protected.
Well, I mean, and it’s, and it’s turned into, I mean, there were, there were stories coming out of a, there, I know there was one that came out of Brooklyn. There were, then there were a couple others where somebody walked into a store with a mask and they were with, or without a mask and they were just drummed out of the store. Like, you know, people, you know, just basically just yelled at and ashamed of them until they left the store.
Yeah. You know, in the, in the hospital, um, you know what, you don’t want to be that guy. Right? You don’t want to be the guy who was known as a super spreader because you forgot your mask or you’re not, you didn’t wear a wet mass is properly sealed. Uh, so initially, you know, the big, you know, we would, a lot of times you think, well, you know, I’ll be the tough guy and I’ll let the mask go. And I won’t have to, you know, I won’t, I won’t be the guy who uses too much. Right. He, cause I want to save it from the teams who are older or weak or not, but it doesn’t work that way. You gotta, you know, if everyone does it, you’re, you’re pretty safe. And if, if you’re exposed, unfortunately with someone who out, without a mask, you’re going to get exposed.
It’s amazing how, uh, it’s amazing how society changes. Um, I forwarded David a video of a comedian, uh, Sebastian Maniscalco. And he’s talking about going to a neighbor’s house. Yeah. Back in 2014. Yeah. Yeah. And they answered those like four years ago and how they answered the door in a surgical mask. And he goes, usually if you got one of those meds done, you pull it down and say, I’m painting downstairs. And he goes, this guy nothing. And he goes complete freak of nature. And he goes, now you look at four years later and it’s like, you’re the freak of you don’t have one on, you know, it’s just amazing how fast society changes.
Yeah. And you know, it’s all about your own personal risk, you know, the, the younger people, um, uh, you know, they’re not, they’re not as high risk as we are. And so a lot of them are, are not wearing masks and it doesn’t really, it’s not, they’re not really a big risk, but hopefully they’ll, if they’re kind to us, they care about us a little bit. They’ll, they’ll ask God for our basket.
Well, and I guess that’s a, that’s a good followup to that. I mean, you know, let’s, I don’t, we’ve already, we went into everything last week, but I mean, so let’s, let’s about just the simple nature of all the protests that have been going on over the past couple of weeks. And, you know, we’ve, we’ve seen, uh, you know, there’s been an awful lot of video and an awful lot of footage. Um, somewhere you’ve seen a lot of people wearing mass. A lot of people are not wearing masks. You had, um, you know, a lot of people were, you know, blasting governor Whitmer, uh, because she was at a, you know, she went to a March, um, wasn’t standing six feet apart from each other, you know, did have a mask on, but wasn’t social distancing, all that kind of stuff. Um, so I mean, I guess what’s your, like, so like what should we be expecting from what we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks? And like, what, what should we be looking out for in the next couple of weeks and, and that sort of thing.
Yeah. So it usually takes about two weeks of incubation and then you’ll find out whether there’s been a seat seeding effect with, with more infection, but usually it takes about two to three months to start the seed. And then the way the exponential growth works that we talked about last time you get enough of a base and all of a sudden it just starts to take off. Um, and, uh, and so, you know, it’ll take two or three weeks and we have a slight hump then watch out because we could be getting, uh, you know, into a spiral that is going to cause a rapid growth rate. And hopefully we’ll have enough testing out there that it’ll, you know, alert us to the fact that, Hey, we got a lot of communities spread and, uh, it turned out that we, uh, got into some super spreading situations with, uh, with, with the protest on the protest side.
You know, I, sir, I certainly understand that if people want to go out and have their say, my recommendation would be, if you’re in category like me, uh, and you wrote anyone like go out, um, a couple of things, sort of drive yourself there, don’t tell you to take public transportation. Right. That right there now it’s, uh, actually, uh, is, is part of the issue. If you’re in an enclosed car for a long time, finally get to the event that’s sitting in, you know, uh, sitting in with lots of other people who are breathing, uh, in a bus. That’s not, that’s not a good thing. So I wouldn’t take a bus, you know, who would do the event, even though there are a lot of people doing that, uh, at my age, I also, uh, would definitely wear a mask, definitely wear gloves. I would probably carry a sign.
Wouldn’t take part in the chanting, uh, because, uh, there’s a lot when, when you’re chanting talking, you know, in order to get exposed, you have to know about, about a thousand to 3000 particles of, of, of, of the virus getting inside of you. Um, normal breathing is about 58, 50, 50, uh, particles, uh, for expert ex exploration. So after about five or six minutes, you know, you can be exposed talking to somebody. And if you’re shouting, uh, then you’re talking about, you know, maybe five to 10,000, especially if you’re using a lot of ages and stages and bees and you know,
all the, all the things that everybody had, a microphone hates, all the plosives. Yeah. Whatever, whatever you’re saying,
Oh boy, those kinds of words. Uh, and then certainly the, the, the big issue is if they start using, you know, tear gas
that about to be my followup.
Yep. Yeah. Then you really gotta be careful cause it can aggravate your lungs to begin with. You gotta take off your mask. You got a lot of people coughing and you got a lot. And when you cough, you’re talking about expirations of 50 miles an hour, that’ll go with, you know, 20, 30 feet. So, you know, uh, it’s a, it’s a, you know, it’s a big difference between shouting which goes 10 feet, uh, versus versus coughing, which goes a lot further. Uh, and, and the other thing I’d say is, uh, you sure don’t want to be arrested and put into Patty wagon with 30 other guys and then put, put into jail, avoid that at all.
I feel like that’s good life advice, Fred. I feel like I forgot his name.
My wife loves that show. The guy who runs the tigers.
Oh, a Joe Maldonado, Joe exotic. Yeah. Yeah.
Well exotic. Yeah. I mean, it’s it, you know, if you’re in prison, it’s, it’s a dangerous situation in there cause it’s just, you’re sitting there in a germ box. So those are most of my thoughts about, about protesting, you know, take a sign, don’t get into shouting, take, take, take your six feet. If you can, if you get started being crowded down, you can’t, and you can’t avoid getting crowded down. I’d probably avoid that situation. I probably wouldn’t, you know, I’d probably say, okay, you know, I’ve had my say, I’m on, I’m off where I, I I’d move around into a different area where I had more space. I could still, you know, do you might say, say my thing and do my, do my thing. Uh, bring hand sanitizers. Cause you’re going to want to shake hands. You’re going to want to touch your face. You’re going to be hot. Uh, bring, bring, uh, if you’re going to wear a mask to make sure you, uh, use, uh, use, uh, a good SPF, uh, on your, on your skin, because you don’t want to get skin cancer, but also you don’t also don’t want to get what they call a mask.
You don’t look like you’ve gone 10 line. Yeah. The mask rings. You don’t want that.
And if you’re having, if you’re having trouble with your math, you know, you’re getting a lot of people are getting what they call Mac Mackney, you know, we got a little bit acne coming up from there. Uh, uh, if you’re a woman don’t use, uh, oily, oily cosmetics, if you can avoid it. And if you’re man or women, uh, try to use, uh, try to avoid synthetic fabrics, a lot of these fancy synthetic fabrics, aren’t, aren’t nearly as breathable. And then they cause a lot of, uh, irritation to your skin. More, more so than you’d think. And unfortunately, I think we’re going to be with a mass situation for over a year
really well. So, and I guess so there’s, I guess there’s a good question. We touched on this a little bit last time, but it was still pretty early in the game and the weather hadn’t changed as much has anything further come out. I mean, cause you know, so it was nice and cool yesterday and today we’re going to be climbing up into the nineties for the next three days. Has there been any more data that you’re aware of? That’s come out about how, you know, Hey, the flu goes away when it gets warm. So I mean, you know, has there been anything more discovered about that in relation to the weather or with this in relation to the weather?
So they are doing really fancy studies now to look at all sorts of modeling, uh, around the weather. And um, so, uh, originally we thought over 77 degrees Fahrenheit was going to be a better period of time than under 77. We thought 77 was a special number. That was the, who was the original number with the temperature humidity makes a big difference. Cause the virus doesn’t travel as far and human weather as it does. You know, if you cough
cause the is have, yeah, it makes sense
trapped in the moisture of the air. So it actually reduces the amount of distance almost to a foot instead of 16. Yeah. But
I’m, I’m not a fan of humidity, but I guess it serves a purpose
when you actually do the, the numbers. Um, it turns out that the biggest factor is how many susceptible people you’ve got out there. You’ve got a lot of people who are susceptible and this is a novel layer. So most of us are still susceptible. Then that’s going to overwhelm almost any other factor in the models that we’re creating. Gotcha. Once you start to get, you know, close to her immunity and you start to get a weather impact, then you’re starting to get there. Then you’d have some opportunity. But right now we think it’s about 0.05 are. So it was just a little bit, the amount of transmission that’s our best guess. Right.
So like, you know, the, I guess, you know, the, the parties you saw, like in the Ozarks, you know, in that kind of stuff where you had hundreds, I mean, yeah, granted it was nice and hot outside, but you had hundreds of people gathering around the pools and that kind of stuff and just going crazy. Yeah. Granted, most of them were young, but still, probably not the best idea.
No, no, that, that, that’s a real superstar of it. He goes, the problem is then you go and visit grandma. Right, right. Or the neighborhood let’s go. And then, then you, then you go to the nursing home and then you, then you have a big belt. Yeah. Those are super spreader events. Uh, and we’ll, we’ll probably, usually you can see what’s interesting is our, our testing technology is pretty sensitive now and you can see that the effect of our, of those little events. So I, uh, we, we had our, uh, you know, when people were getting Nancy and they, they, they went and they demonstrated it at the, uh, uh, at the blood chasers. Let’s, we’re going to open up now, but believe it or not, a day later, we actually could see, uh, you know, it took about two or three days for that, that, that, that to sort of push back down again.
Uh, so those, those events do, do make a slight difference. Uh, now there were lots of other people out there. So that was, it was, it was the first nice day of the spring. So there were a lot of people that do out and about, I just remember it cause of that day that, uh, there are some events that can really make a difference. For example, they shut down Korea. Now Korea has a different philosophy about, about the three different philosophies that government can have basically about what they want to do with coronavirus. Right? The first is they want to, um, they, they want to contain the virus. And so Korea, Taiwan, China, those guys are actually trying to contain virus, which means if you get, if you get exposed, you know, you’re supposed to quarantine immediately supposed to announce all the contacts you’ve had.
They’ve got electronic medical, they got electronic records in Israel looking actually you go find where you’ve been, who you’ve been with and announced to everybody, you know, this person is ill. So be careful. Well, um, and then there’s suppression, which we’re doing in most of the States. And there’s some who just like Sweden, who were saying, you know, we’re just going to let it go, let it rip, see what happens. Uh, so those are the three different processes when Korea who was trying to actually contain the virus, had that one guy. Remember that one guy who found out two days later after they opened up, you went to three big nightclubs. They shut down the whole country for a few days. So, so the cause they’re trying to avoid those super spreader events. Uh, so that, that’s a, that’s a sort of a different philosophy, but that’s what happens in those safe hunters yet.
I was going to say, so kind of, so like, you know, the like New Zealand, you know, kind of did the same thing and they just made the big announcement today. Hey, life is back to normal as of today. No more social distancing rules, no more, any of that stuff, I guess like what, what did they do that was so different from us other than they’re way, way smaller, but we can’t get there so easily. They’re way down there. I mean, that didn’t really help Manhattan. We got bridges,
New Zealand. So yes. So what New Zealand did is they made a couple mistakes early on, but they very quickly decided we’re going to go with containment. We’re going to not allow anyone on the Island or off the Island period. And they’re still not letting anyone off or off the Island. You have to come in from Australia being in Australia and even come on in New Zealand. So, um, uh, and they have at very advanced, uh, contact tracing. So I can’t, I can’t give you the example of New Zealand, but when a friend of mine went to Taiwan recently, actually when they were trying to contain, uh, and his cell phone, he forgot to plug it in. So he flew in, he flew in, went to his hotel and at seven 43 in the morning, his cell phone died. And what, when you come into Taiwan, you get a special program on your phone.
And it says, you know, carry this with you all the time. It’ll indicate whether you’ve been in contact with any or, and at eight Oh four, the police were at his hotel door. So about 21 minutes, 21 minutes later, he had four police guys explained him that he would be in his room with his meal, served to him at his own expense for the next 14 days, because he had violated this rule that happened within about eight hours of his landing because his phone that, wow, he was completely screwed. Wow. Was that fast? It was. And you know, he, he, he tried to do stuff and they said, we know, we see you’re in the hallway, I’m just getting ice. You know,
they, they, they knew exactly what,
yeah. Yeah. So that’s containment strategy and that can be extremely effective, but you know, you’re talking about, um, a smaller, smaller population, a little bit less freedom. Uh, that’s willing to do that.
Hey, Freida, shifting gears a little bit, has the American, I guess hospital medical system cleaned up the way they’re labeling it. Because I remember when we first talked to you, one of the misinformations or one of the things I wanted to, you know, we discussed was, um, how it was like you label it. I don’t remember the exact verbiage, but it was, um, if you have, if you think that it’s coronavirus label it as Corona virus, um, it wasn’t necessarily definitive or they cleaned up, I guess, the way hospitals are labeling cases now.
Yeah. So as I said, you know, a couple of things first, um, we have, we have a large asymptomatic population, so we can’t always tell. And third and second are all our testing. Isn’t as good as it. We really need to get it to be, hopefully the next set of CRISPR tests will be more and more, more precise about, about the, uh, about whether you’ve got the disease or not, and have less false negative. Uh, so right now we think that we’ve undercounted by about 10,000, but that was largely early on when people were unfortunately, uh, you know, dying, um, you know, uh, without in their apartments, in their homes. Uh, and we, we, we just thought it was the flu. Um, but we think we’ve undercounted by about 10,000.
Does that take into effect? Like I remember the numbers are huge and all of a sudden, some States it got cut in half, some States jumped dramatically. So again, this is one of the things where we’re looking at trying to make sense of it going, uh, what’s real. What’s not. And, uh, yeah. Then you’re saying, gotta add 10 grand and then, but this state says subtract 10 grand. You know what I mean? So, yeah, like, it’s good. I’m just trying to make sense of all this. That’s part of the thing that makes people distrust numbers.
Oh yeah. The, the way we think we know this is because of the number of what they call excess deaths. So we have a certain kind of projection of what, what we think the death rates going to be. We survey this every year with a and data sets, and then we see how many extra deaths beyond what we were expecting to have from a normal disease amounts. And we’ve been pretty, pretty precise, uh, for the last four or five years about death projections. And then, um, what, when we saw this were, were, were versus what we had, where we were about, we had about 10,000 more than we were really expecting. So the excess death number was, was the one that actually kind of reconfirmed that we were probably slightly under counting versus the fair. It’s still a big factor and reasons for death. But a friend of mine sent me, this friend of mine sent me this meme that said basically, you know, a husband to wife, a wife to husband, if I gained weight since, uh, since the COVID, uh, crisis husband, well, he worked at light to begin with reasons for death, Kobe,
it’s hard to count them
quacky beer. And there was a, there’s some story where a guy committed suicide with a shot gun and they labeled it COBIT and everybody, of course, everybody jumps all over, Oh my God, you mislabeled, you know, but it’s like, that’s one case, is it more than one? That’s kind of what, you know, obviously they take everything at a service level. I don’t, you know, uh, don’t read into it too deep. That’s what, you know, again, that’s why I try to look at multiple sources and try to make, you know, halfway normal. Uh,
it’s interesting if you want, I can show you, I was worried about the same thing. Same thing about, I, I, you know, I’m in my little little world, I talked to my friends who were up in Amy Alex’s umbrella, just so we sort of get into our own area. So what’s interesting is we actually had a survey among epidemiologists. Uh, what about COVID? What would you do? What would you do how long it’s could take? And so I, if you want, I can show you some of the results I took part in it, and it, wasn’t the kind of survey we like is epidemiologists. And, and we’re a little bit nerdy, but I can,
I feel like that’ll play well with our crowd. You’re fine.
Yeah. So the New York times stuff was just, I don’t feel so bad about joining Saul, but I may show a little bit more than, than, uh, than, uh, let’s see here, if I can find some of the, so, uh, I actually, I should go back and show you some of this
let’s see here.
Yeah. So, so when you think about, um, uh, so even we have opinions about what we’re supposed to do and not do, right. And this is sort of interesting. This is a study that I did and, uh, federal reserve bank of Chicago did on the, on the, Oh, I’m sorry. Uh, or so, Hey Bob, don’t let me forget. We’ll do the, uh, the ad reads at the end of this, and then I’ll go back and I’ll slip it up in the middle. That’s fine. Uh, so here we go. I’ll show you one. So I’ll show you a couple of things on this slide that quickly, the first thing is I wanted to show you what I do every once in a while, and that is moving. There we go. And that is, you know, so I started kind of looking at this in, in early February and I wanted to show you, can you see my screen? Yep. Yes. Oh, okay. So I wanted to show you, I think I showed you some of this last time. I didn’t know what if I showed you the, the, um,
you know, who are my projections? I ran, I ran projections from February 17th to March 23rd, and I thought I was getting pretty good. And so I decided to project and on that projection day was March 23rd. We had 773 deaths. And our, our unemployment rate was 4.4%. And, um, so I said, well, you know, here’s what I’m, here’s what I think is gonna happen. I think that we’re going to get bye bye. By a
middle of may, my projection was 84,000 deaths, and we only had 773 at the time I projected that. So that was pretty aggressive because flu, for example, normally only kills about, you know, 30,000 people. So it was, it was a, it was a big projection. I was saying, Oh, that seems like really high, but you know, that’s what I’m getting. So I’ll go ahead and publish it. So that’s what my, the actual number, I think, um, uh, in the middle of may was about 85,000, actually, right now we’re at a hundred, 3000. I, and I projected that by middle of may. We’d be at minus 26% of women. We were at minus 23% of women. So, you know, you can get pretty precise and pretty accurate if you, if you make some assumptions, um, that, that, that, that are, you know, we knew pretty well the time that I was baking some of those. So that, that it gives you a sense of some of the things that we do because epidemiologist. So we know quite a bit about, you know, we don’t know that much about this. Not nearly as much as we’d like to, but we know enough to project reasonably well. So I thought I’d show you some of the stuff that epidemiologists were saying. So here’s the epidemiologist, uh, survey. Ah, so you can see the top one on sporting events, concerts and plays. Um, 64% of us would work. Wait for more than one year.
I was like, yeah, that’s, that’s, that’s a big old, no, on that.
I mean, that’s a long time to wait to go to a counselor or a player, an event. Holy moly. So you do this in March or you do this, this was done. This was, this was conducted last week. Okay. Yeah, yeah. This was last week. This is based on, you know, newest stuff. Um, 37% of wouldn’t even think about flying until at least a year from now. And Melissa, we, we, it was sent out to 6,500 or so epidemiologists and only 500 or so responded because they were very upset with the survey taker, who it was was, was the, who was the, uh, Academy. And the reason we were upset and I was upset about the too is because it gave you calendar numbers, not milestones. So what you’d like to see is would you go out if we had a good drug, you know, if we had a gotcha that did this, or we had a vaccine that was 70% effective, or, you know, or we found out that PPE, that everyone everyone’s doing PPE, but they didn’t do it that way.
They said, you know, in one year, well, we can’t predict what’s going to happen in a year with the drug development process. So we were very unhappy with the sort of way they did this. Mostly we’re sort of saying, and until there’s a vaccine, we’re not going to go to a sporting event. Basically. We’re probably not going to take airplanes until we know at least two as the disease I’m playing and whether we can screen them out before we get on weddings and funerals, you can get a sense, you know, 42% said that they wouldn’t go for more than a year. So this is, this is an epidemiologist 75 to 80% of these guys work with COVID every day.
Alison, Alison, if you’re watching it, my, my niece is getting married later this year. I’m still coming to your wedding, then that’s good.
Even if it’s outside, it is actually, yeah, there you go.
It’s a lot better shape it’s inside. And Oh man, that, then you get that. Then there’s a challenge. Um, so that, that, that then here’s how we need to meet new people over 40% that we won’t even bother me to new people
for another year. Wow.
So the guys who are working with this, like me every day are really conservative.
Well, we’re not going to be seeing any, uh, epidemiologists at our networking events. Bob, that’s a [inaudible]
40, right. Cause they’ll have their PhD. So you don’t get that to 2030 anyway, Hey, you got to go through your fellowships and everything else. So all of these guys are probably slightly older. Um, it’s about evenly split men and women, but
take down these questions or any, I totally want to do an it in the D version of this and see how it goes, Oh, we’re, we’re recording this. I’m I’m totally going to put these questions out. I absolutely have to do like a Google. So absolutely.
I’d love it now that beautiful. I love it. So when you stopped wearing a mask, as I said, I think it’s going to be another year, at least before we stopped wearing masks, because I don’t think we’re going to have a vaccine until, you know, for, uh, sadly about, for about 1920 months, that’s even useful. And then even then we’re just going to be, take a while to get them no more hugs and handshakes. One of the quotes is real. Mel just don’t shake hands.
We’re a conservative, but I feel like that would be an accurate statement.
Then they were talking about a school camp and daycare here. It was quite a bit more mixed. So know, so I was surprised at 40%. So, you know, in the fall, I like to see the kids go back. Um,
I feel like the, the following projecting, well, there should have no, there should have been at the follow up question. You should have been, do you have kids? Cause, cause I feel like the ones that have kids are like now, like send them, send them back now, send them back in the summer, make them go. Yeah.
And here the responses back were things like I’m worried about, about my children’s, you know, uh, social development too. And I’m worried that am I keep my home all the time that, you know, given the low risk of children coming down with a deadly disease occur on their belly version of virus, you know, there is a small chance that you get Kawasaki like syndrome, but it’s not that high. I’m willing to take that risk versus making sure they socially developed. So there was interesting commentary about that, that question. This is the heart. I think that one was the hardest question for the epidemiologist visiting the elderly 40% will go, go see any of anyone, you know, who’s elderly for at least a year. I mean, you know, shocking.
Well, and I mean, in, in, in that case, that’s more for their own protection, more than anything else. I mean, that’s, you know, the people you’re be going to visit.
Absolutely. Yeah. Uh, and, uh, so that, that was, that was the epidemiologist, uh, uh, survey. Um, yeah, that, that, that was that. So, uh, what what’s interesting is that if you talk to normal, you know, just break people who are, who are, uh, out there, uh, out and about on the street, um, this is the, what the federal reserve bank in Chicago, cause they’re doing a lot of work in stimulus and they’re worried about the demand function, right? So this was sort of, um, what the, what the response was to lock down. And so you can see that these are different. They’re the lines indicate different times of lockdown. So if you were an early lockdown state, you’d think that, okay, it’d be going along steady, steady lockdown comes and you drop to seven, you know, minus 70% on that day, right? If your law abiding citizen, you work all the way through and then you stop and that’s it.
And, but what was interesting is that whether you were on an early state or a late state, and we’re talking about States that, you know, didn’t close until April 14th, April, April 5th, April 10th, you still have the same behavior regardless of what state you were in. So people who are in like, uh, Florida who didn’t stop until April 2nd had the same behavior in terms of doing their nonessential visits. As the people in Michigan who stopped, who were pretty, who were pretty early on in the process. So that that’s really, to me, that was interesting. You know, people have a sense of this is pretty dangerous. You know, I understand what the state’s telling me, but I I’ve got my own ways of making decisions. Thank you very much. And I’m going to do it the way I want to do it. And so that, that was interesting.
What’s also addressing is that opening up a similar, so if you look at Georgia versus New York, this is spending levels and you can see that basically Georgia New York and the average in the United States are all about the same in terms of the economic impact that a shut down or an opening up is going to have. So this was the opening up, uh, what happened with, uh, with, uh, spending at, uh, uh, spending rebounds. And what’s even more interesting is you can see that we’re pretty consistent worldwide, whether you’re from us, Europe, Asia, Pacific, uh, here are the people who are, you know, there’s going to be about a quarter of us who were feeling pretty good right away. They go out and do their thing. Uh, a few of us want to wait for the first group to go out for a week or two before they join, there was going to be about 25% who wait a month. And there, there are some there’s about 25% more who will never do that activity again, or wait at least three months. So it’s sort of interesting, you know, even worldwide that, you know, people have a good sense of, okay, you know, I’ve read, I’ve read the material, I’m making my decision and here it is.
So I guess the, I guess the inevitable followup to that is,
I guess, why not go ahead and just issue the, the, the release order, you know, Hey, let’s end this and open back up knowing that people are going to have those behaviors.
Right. I think that’s a great question. Uh, we, first of all, we didn’t know.
True. Yeah. Do
we have the data? Uh, which is interesting.
Second thing is the epidemiologists were a lot more conservative. I don’t know if you, if you look at that, but people were sort of, I’ll wait for three months, that was 75% were willing to go in either, you know, 50% were willing to go on the first two weeks DBL just, I mean, almost every time we’re 50%, I’m going to wait a year plus. Yeah. Cause that was sort of interesting. The experts were saying, Ruth, you know, this is, this couldn’t be worse than we think we don’t know enough yet. So we didn’t know enough. And so we just did that. The second reason is, is because, you know, you want to open up smart, you know, you, there’s a trade off between saying, you know, I want to run my electrical power plant, uh, and have electricity for everybody, or, you know, having a big rock concert in the middle of city hall. Right? Those, those two things, you know, you want to sort of have sightly say, this one is more important. If we have to make a choice, you know, I’m going to do the rock concert or I’m going to do what I,
yeah. I’ve heard of the power plant. I saw a thing on the news today, Fred, like this restaurant that basically you have to wait outside, you have to use an app on your phone, um, to get in and they come out to get you. Then they check for like for problems and they see you. And you’re all like in between plexiglass and walls. And then you have to use a digital menu from a QR code. And then you have to, you can take your mask off to eat. At what point is it like, you know, effort? I’m just getting takeout. Like the process is almost not even a word GrubHub and DoorDash. Thanks. That’d be great.
You know, in a nice place right there, that’d be a nice option. Yeah. It’s a, so people who are taking it seriously, you know, in China, believe it or not, they don’t even let you take your mask off. You’ve got to push your food, you know, up in under, you know, you gotta lift your basket, let you have it full, like, you know, down with your jobs. It’s yeah. That’s a good follow up question then. Do you think these measures are enough or too much? Not enough. So, uh, that’s a great question. And I think it’s based, it’s a little bit based on your own personal risk level and attitude, right? If you’re a younger person who doesn’t have invest in facing that much risk living in by themselves, you know, wants to have a nice time. Chances are, you can take some risks and not that are much, that’d be less impactful.
If something bad you versus a guy who’s like my age and go does the same thing. I, I, uh, so the answer is, um, go to the place and then judge it about how much risk you want to take out, right? As a person, as a person based on your, your experience and what you want to trade off. Cause, you know, you can take a risk here. You can take a risk there, which, which is more important to you as a person. Uh, maybe the funeral that you think about going to see, you could see, you know, it’s gonna be more important than going to the restaurant that they, for example, so make that trade off in your own mind and then actually look pretty carefully at the situation. Um, and some cities have actually had like San Antonio, uh, parts of the new England have a pledge.
And there was accreditation levels that a company called NSF provides and they it’s a.org, uh, group. And they’ll actually ask, you know, they’ll ask, actually look at your cleaning levels. Are, are you going, are you, are you, uh, uh, at CDC level cleaning recommendations, which are pretty strict, uh they’ll they’ll check to see whether do you have a thermal testing system to come into, uh, to enter the, the, the building, uh, do you use, uh, cashless credit cards, uh, cashless, cashless credit, uh, in order to pay, uh, those kinds of factors. So there are six or seven factors that they’d use, uh, and, and make sure that, that if you’re thinking you’re at a high risk, that you’re going into a place that that’s pretty safe and I wouldn’t stay very long, you know, if you’re at, uh, the, the, the, the, the, the thing that really hurts is how long you stay at these places. So if you’re at a bar for 50 minutes and it’s got bad ventilation, you got a really high chance,
but that, okay, I just want to get that does not mean bar hop yet. Like that does not mean not staying at not staying at one place for a long time does not mean you’re going to 18 places,
just so just check it out and then decide on your own basis of risk, whether you think it’s worthwhile, if you don’t see any of them wiping down tables very effectively there, they got all the condiments out and you’re, you know, people are using the salt and pepper shakers, putting them back down in, they don’t have menus that are, that are digital, they’re taking cash and credit and leaving cash on the table. And it stays there for a while. They haven’t separated effectively, I think really, and it’s all closed in, uh, and you’re there and you’re going to be there for a while. Cause it was crowded, I think, real careful before I went to that place. But if it was a place that had no nice open, open bar had picnic tables up at, you know, you’re out in the fresh air when the sun sun’s shining and then you’ve got plenty of distancing going on and they’re there and they’re taking everything real seriously, wiping things down, leaving their hands. They’ve got policies set up. Yeah. You know, I, especially, if they’re wanting to play, you take stuff out and go to where you want to go, it might be a nicer place anyway.
Well, and I think that’s why I think that’s why we’re seeing, you know, two things that are happening currently. One you’re seeing, you know, and, you know, like the city of Detroit, you know, basically streamlined the process to let people set up, um, you know, patios and that kind of stuff on sidewalks and outdoor seating and that kind of thing. Um, but we’re also seeing where a lot of restaurants are saying, okay. Yeah. Just because we can doesn’t mean we are, um, you know, I saw, you know, a lot of places today that said, Hey, you know what, we’re thinking, maybe 4th of July weekend, we’ll open. Um, you know, we just, we don’t have, you know, we, we, we got the notice last week. There’s no way we can ramp up, you know? And, and I mean, I think if I recall correctly, the guidelines on bars and restaurants reopening is a 17 page document. Uh,
yeah. CDC went into it full blast. So they really were careful about what they were recommending. I definitely recommend taking a look at that also as an employee, you know, uh, the, your, your job can be either be your safest environment or your, or your riskiest environment, depending on, um, you know, the policies. It’s really nice. If, if, uh, you know, they have a good policy where if you’re not feeling good, you, you can, you can say, I think I might have been exposed and being able to quarantine and still keep your job. Those kinds of policies are really important right now. Cause you don’t have guys coming in and thinking they are a little bit sick and they’re going to
no, they, they, they’re worried about paying their rent, you know, and they, they say, Hey, I gotta do what I gotta do and they’re going to serve your dinner. So it’s 17 pages, but it really, it’s only eight and a half because for everything that they say you do, they say, you don’t have to do that the right underneath it. So it’s like really double it’s. Like you have to wipe off the table every minute. I mean, you don’t have to wipe up the table. I mean, you have to wipe it off every two minutes. I mean, it’s, it’s an, it kind of just goes out, you know, you have to wear a mask, but you don’t, but you kind of have to, but you only, the only the cooks need to
Oh, well, I mean, you know, we, we, you know, we’ve the three of us have a, have a mutual friend who was out and about today. Um, and he said, yeah, basically there’s, there’s no difference in this place from before. Um, other than, you know, yeah. There’s a, I guess there’s maybe a few fewer seats, but I mean, like, you know, his cracking comment was, cause I asked a question and he was like, Oh, I dunno. Let me ask the guy that, you know, the stranger that’s sitting a foot and a half away from me on another bar stool and see what he says about the whole thing. Same bowl. Yeah. Yeah. If it looks like the guy just shot
down for six weeks and they’re basically open, like open the door, but brushed, brushed off some of the dust. That’s not the place you want to go. You want to go to a place that really thought, thought it through in terms of opening. And there, there are some, you know, there, there are some good, good, good rules. You should be, you know, you and employees should be washing your hands. Uh, at each major social contact, probably that probably ends up to be at least once a once or twice an hour. I believe it or not stay away from the bathroom if you can avoid it because there’s a lot of aerosol and going on and bathroom, uh, that that’s, uh, that’s, that can be tricky, uh, be in the out, out outside of you can be, especially avoid the vents of an air conditioner that’s gonna spread, uh, you know, uh, being upstream, downstream of big air conditioning events.
That can be a real spreader. Don’t try not to face people, you know, uh, tables that face each other are more dangerous than that. Then, then, then those that don’t. Um, and, uh, you know, we only have really four things we can work with. One hygiene is one that’s the handwashing PPDs in other words, the mask and gloves, but mostly masks, uh, in this case, uh, we’ve got the distancing piece, you know, trying to keep 60 away and then we have the screening piece. And it’s nice if as you said, you know, if you walk into the place and they are counting the number of people who are coming in and out, they have a temperature screening that goes where they’re able before people get into the venue, to be able to say, I’m sorry, got a temperature, please go and get tested and come back. Um, kind of thing. Uh, so those are the four things we have. What’s interesting is not one of them is 100% effective, but when you start to overlap, a lot of them on top of each other, then it gets to be pretty good. But you still want to, if he can, outside is always better. You know, a loan is always better. Six feet.
There are some basic rules. So Bob, our, uh, our typical purge, uh, where we’re sitting on bar stools, uh, basically we’re going to be good. The bartender screwed. That’s a, that’s what I’m hearing here. That’s a, yeah, I’ll make sure the wiping down that bar though. You’re gonna be picking up all sorts of stuff off the bar. Then, uh, I was still stuck on the word at aerosol in the bathroom. I was trying to figure out what that was. That’s not an urban dictionary term. Bob aerosols are the bad ones, right. They
year a long time. There’s sort of a, that that’s the
yeah, like actual aerosol. Oh no. Did like, no. And like, I mean, every time a toilet flushes there’s particles that go up every time, a year and often there’s a part, I mean, it’s, that’s a thing.
Yeah. Yeah. From the sink even. Yeah. Yeah. We have a couple more listener questions. Diane wants to know if you have any thoughts on lactoferrin as a treatment or prevention as I’m sorry, as a preventative, as treatment or prevention.
I don’t have a point of view about lactoferrin yet. I need to look at the, uh, at some of the scientific work that’s being done. There’s been, what’s interesting is we were getting a lot of results on very small populations. So, you know, kind of let’s try this piece out. If it makes some sense, uh, it could block the virus, it could improve our, it could improve our extra donation levels that can help in certain, uh, certain, uh, um, uh, symptoms. And so for example, uh, one of the recent last week, they were, they were announcing a Pepcid. If you add PepsiCo to the, uh, to the course of treatment, help 10 of their patients, you know, eight out of 10 of the patients were, but now they want to follow that up with a, uh, with a more rigorous study that actually, um, is blinded.
So you can’t tell what patients are getting the, the Pepcid much patients aren’t getting heavily cookie natural. What happens is, as clinicians, we naturally tend to say like, like a Ram disappear. The problem with the study was it was open what they call open label. So you could tell exactly who was getting the drug. And, and what happens is reminiscent was a pretty tough drug to take. And so, um, they were backing off saying, you know, that guy’s a little bit too far gone, so we better not give him a degree of couldn’t get, could push them over the edge. Uh, and so you naturally have some selection going on there. So what happens is you get these anecdotal pieces, which could really be the something, and then you want to follow it up with a longer study. That’s that’s the case of like a therapy.
And then the next question is, does a physical exercise help at all with, uh, with prevention or
yes, absolutely. Anything you can do to stimulate your immune system will and physio and physical fitness absolutely helps you. Don’t go to a club and, and, you know, be next to lots of sweaty people. Cause that, that, that, that is sad, sad, the, a super spreader, uh, environment. But if you can exercise by yourself and improve your immune, what happens is when you, when you actually work out, your immune system gets a little recent, it gets a little bit of a reset and it can absolutely help. And it also allows you to frequently when you, if you exercise, you know, um, not too late in the day, so it doesn’t keep you up. But if you exercise and you’re a little bit more tired out, you get better sleep. Uh, those things can be important. Make sure you drink a lot. The other thing I’d say
I got that. I’m good. I’m good. [inaudible] I read something that said alcohol kills this I’m I’m good. I got a whole stockpile back here
about 70%. Alcohol is, is literally between that knife and proxy. Those are your best.
Hey, I got some, I got some barrel strength. I got barrel strength, bourbon sitting back here. I’m good.
The answer is, yeah, those healthy things, making plenty of water, uh, you know, taking your vitamins, keeping your immune system up, getting your back and getting vaccinated can re reset your back, uh, immune system often, uh, and make it stronger. So getting your flu shots, getting your pneumonia shots, definitely do those kinds of things. It’ll it’ll help your overall immunity levels, but absolutely exercise is a great idea. The only exception is if you think you might be having the symptoms of COVID a lot of times, uh, guys who are working out like, like me, I’ll say, Oh, I got a little cough. I’ll work. If I work out, I’ll just work it through with COVID, uh, a you do a heavy exercise and it turns out you’ve got COVID and you’re on the initial side of symptoms and it can, it can really do some bad damage. So if you ha, if you feel like he might have COVID or been exposed to COVID, don’t exercise them. But if you’re, if you’re just, you know, normally a distancing feeling good, absolutely. Especially out in the fresh air, a little bit of a sun helps clear the mind, fresh air pressure, all that, all those things are good for you. Absolutely.
So doesn’t that kind of help make the case that like gyms and stuff should have been higher up the food chain when it comes to a reopening list?
Oh, no. Uh, uh, so your own private gym. Absolutely. Uh, but the gyms that, that, that you’re sharing, um, you know, we, we, we’ve done some studies. The problem with the gyms is if you’re working out hard, uh you’re you’re, you’re, you’re, you you’re, you’re just exhaling a lot. And, uh, with every breath that you’re exhaling strong, uh, that puts a lot of potential viral particles in the air, and then you’re inhaling deeply as well. Right. So, cause you’re exercising. And so you get that, that transfer just happens so much more easily when you’re under, when you’re, when you’re working out hard, uh, that plus, you know, wiping down after you’re done exercising and the touch and then touching your hands and wiping your brow and, you know, we all do that. And it’s natural and
interesting. Yeah. I’ve just, I’ve seen a lot of people, I mean, basically losing their minds over the fact that Jim’s aren’t open, so yeah, that’s it. Yeah.
Yeah. But, but it is, gyms are sadly a, unless you’re in a super ventilated place and probably frankly outdoors, uh, I think it’s just, I think you’d want to, you want to exercise with a mask on either?
Oh yeah. The
that’s a lot. So yeah, the answer is sadly that exercise is great inside gyms. Uh, if you’re not sure,
then there’s no reason to be in them and if you are working out, there’s a reason to not be in a gotcha. Yeah. Randy, you got any more, sorry. No, I think that’s the last question. Uh, the one more, the last one that I had come in, um, is, and this is, and I’ll, I’ll just phrase this as even, even as impractical as this would be with our country. Um, you know, do you think that a complete and total shutdown of everything would actually stop the virus enemy? And so like basically, you know, if everything just closed for two weeks, they said, Hey, everybody stock up and whatever you’re going to need for the next two weeks. And then you’re locked in your houses for two weeks and life’s good. Would that effectively kill this off?
Unfortunately, it wouldn’t. I hate to say it, but the problem is that we’re just too global right now. And, uh, it’s, it’s, you know, uh, and, and, you know, people coming in and out of the country, it just, uh, sadly the virus has just, um, it’s, it’s just, it just here now, uh, week. And so it’s very, very hard to completely eliminate it. The problem is it actually takes six weeks to completely eliminate it. You off a long time to try to prevent all things from occurring in two weeks is how long it takes to isolate yourself. But if someone, any one person has the disease, it actually takes six weeks, uh, for the, for the full cycle, uh, to
you go through in terms of gotcha. Yeah. So it’s up, it’s up to two weeks to present the symptoms, but then you’ve still got the course. You’ve still got to run the course of the virus. Gotcha.
Yeah, yeah. I’d love it. It was, it was like a fluid four days. And you’re, you know, then you can think sort of think in those terms, but in this case, it’s just, it’s just there and where you’re stuck with it. Um, that’s not to say, uh, you know, that’s not to say we can’t open and close, uh, and a new partial shutdowns of that, that aren’t as hard on the economy is what we’ve been doing right now. We’d be shutting down everything or opening up everything. And instead we should think more about, you know, uh, what we really want to have and then open those parts up first and sequence it. Right. I think, I think, uh, governor Whitmer is, is, is being, is being smart. I haven’t seen all of her. I know I’m not consulting to her. I do consult to other States. Um, and we to kind of say,
these are the more important things to open up first. These are the things open up second. These are the things I think she’s doing this
well. Yeah. I mean, I mean, we went from number three and infection rate to number 26. So clearly something was done. Right. And, and I guess the followup to that is so from your point of view, so now that everything is opening up, I think everybody’s probably biggest fear is if there’s a spike, what do you think would be the trigger for them to drop the hammer back down and say, look, we need to start. We need to, okay, kids, we let you play in the yard. Now, now we’ve got to come back. So it’s interesting. I’ll show you
I’ll show you one last slide, um, which might be helpful. Uh, and that is, uh, I’m kind of share the screen here. Uh, um,
let’s see. There we are.
Mmm. This is the, this is the thing that us epidemiologists are, are arguing about.
these are the different models that we think might happen. Um, and the first one is the once and done, and then like decline model, right. And here, sadly, there’s no real biological model that says this is going to happen. We maybe we’ll be lucky. And the thing will just die out on its own accord. It’s unlikely.
Well, I mean, so the last time we talked, isn’t that kind of what happened with SARS?
It is, I see it costs to Canada and it just died, which was great. It was fabulous.
Nate got it. God bless our little five mile an hour bumper crumple zone to the North. That’s thanks guys. We appreciate it.
Well, let something like this could happen, but SARS is a little bit different and that it was still just a, it’s a, it’s an epidemic, you know, it wasn’t, uh, it wasn’t, it wasn’t pandemic yet. It wasn’t quite as established this unfortunate with the Colby were it’s really established. And so a lot of economic models are showing, you know, kind of V-shaped recoveries and things like that. That’s unlikely unless we have this kind of a, I want to just, you know, okay. It comes up once and it just dies and forgets about us. Um, especially because we just have so much travel, you know, right now the States are guys will fly in from Brazil and all of a sudden what cut you off all up again. So, um, that, so it’s unlikely, but it’s possible. So we put it in, um, then we’ve got the rant, the random regional fires they’ve talked. If you hear what president Trump was saying, he was saying, you know, we’ll, we’ll have, we’ll have some flare ups. We’ll, we’ll crush them. We’ll have some flare up across them and they’ll, they’ll happen sporadically around the country. We’re not going to shut down the whole country again, but it will be surprised here and there. And we’ll watch for it. We have a big enough testing infrastructure now that we can probably find it fast enough that we can stop it.
Well, and that’s, and that’s kind of the model you were, that you had mentioned, uh, during your last, you know, when you were with us last time was, Hey, we’re going to see these ripples and wait, like every time, like we relax a little bit, expect to see this
that’s right. That’s right. And, and, and, and what’s interesting is, you know, right now we’re seeing about 2000 deaths about, about 1200 deaths a day. And, you know, w we might be up at that rate at 1200 or 1200, 1200, and maybe it’ll go up to 1500 and hopefully we’ll be able to detect the difference, you know, 1200 a rate of death and a 1500 rate of death. So we can catch it before it goes to problem, is that it doubles right every week. So if you miss it at 12 and it goes to 24, all of a sudden, then all of a sudden, you have to worry about controlling 4,800, and then you miss it again, it’s 96 and so on. So that, that’s what you want to have enough testing infrastructure in place enough contact tracing enough infrastructure, to be able to say, okay, we’re, we’re, we’re nipping at the bud.
We think if, if it’s in this kind of environment, we’ll probably have about six major outbreaks. If we don’t nip it in the bud, then what happens is, you know, um, like, you know, South Carolina decides they want to be brave. We’re going to cut this out. And all of a sudden it goes, it goes, it goes high. Uh, and I’m worried about some States in this Mo in this mode where they have about 28 of the States we have right now, they don’t have any backup plans. They, they basically say we’re going to open and then that’s it. No, we’re going to open up more and more and more and more. There’s nothing to say. If we hit a certain point, we’re going to back down. Um, and so those States I could be at risk of not really of letting things get too far and then realizing, Oh, shoot, we got to back up a little bit and realizing it’s harder to do once it gets to a point of, uh, exponential growth.
This would happen probably about four times a year. And we’d have like a major outbreak in Atlanta, a major outbreak in Charlotte, uh, slash Raleigh, a major outbreak suddenly in Penn and Philadelphia, probably where we’re, we’re, we’re, we’ve got population density to really see the impact in a lot of the less dense populated areas. We could have an outbreak, uh, but we just wouldn’t notice it, it wouldn’t hit the front page of New York times, whereas if we had one in Philadelphia, right? So that that’s, that that’s that scenario. And then the worst scenario actually has a Spanish flu scenario. And here we have a little bit of, of, of impact of seasonality. So what happened with the flu is it came through late spring, then there was seasonality, it died down completely. And then what happened was we got, you know, pretty relaxed and said, everything’s great. Well, Tobar came. And then there was a lot of Tinder, a lot of people who was really susceptible and it just went around the
why, why you got to save the doom and gloom for your last slide, man. That’s why I should show something else. I’m about to get hit with messages about people starting to do shots again. I got, Oh my God. I can tell you some of the things. So,
so these are the scenarios, and these are the factors we use in order to kind of calculate the scenario, you know, and we asked, you know, how long will we be immune, uh, for how long will it will, will that immunity last? That that’s a big factor. We’re not sure about yet. What’s the real fatality. We’re not really exactly sure yet. And each of those little factors, when you start adding them all together and start to really make a difference in, in the Hines of, of, of, uh, of results you get, but slowly but surely, we’re, we’re getting there, we’re getting our number on it.
So, I mean, I guess the moral of the story is as with most things science related, Hey, stuff’s still evolving and we’re figuring it out as we go,
well, every week we’re getting smarter. Yeah. Sadly it’s, it’s worse than we thought. And we out, we’ve underestimated it a lot, you know, in the past. And, uh, hopefully it won’t get won’t catch us a second time. Cause we it’s, it’s it hit us. It ended us particularly hard in United States. And we’re only about 4.1% of the total population. And we’ve got 20% of the deaths right now. That’s a tough one. And we spent, we out’s better our rest of the GP, 20 colleagues by 50%. So not only did we have the worst death rate, we also had the highest economic cost. And if you look at the guys who are managing it really well, they actually have low Geoff rates and low economic cost. It’s sort of interesting that there’s this group that’s saying, you know, we either have to choose our economy or we have to choose the health. In fact, it’s highly correlated. If you do well with health, you do pretty well with the economy. And if you don’t do well with health, your economy really gets shot, shot up. So it’s, it’s not exactly a choose one or the other. It’s if you’re smart about managing health and economy, you’re going to do that well. And if you’re not, it’s going to be really expensive and we got hit the first round, but now hopefully we’re more ready for it. The second round.
I, wow. Um, I think that that’d probably about wraps us up. I mean, unless there’s anything else that you want to touch on or bring up,
well, one of these times I’ll, I should, I should probably tell you guys what kind of technologies we’re using to start to eliminate the virus. So maybe we just say that for the next time.
Oh, okay. Well, I w I will absolutely have you back again,
you know, uh, lovely love to talk about, cause there’s some really good news, I think downstream where we’re doing vaccines and, and we were learning more and more, faster and faster and, and we’ve got some, I think it’s going to have some good news coming downstream. It’s just right now, we’re sort of in the, in the, in the deep end still, that’s still quite a paddle our way through it.
Yeah. So, alright, well, Hey, I, again, thank you so much. Like I, I never know it. Like I, you know, I’m, I’m used to seeing you elsewhere with like little 15 minute boxes that you live in. And so when I say, Hey, you’ve got free rate and go, like, I don’t know if that’s going to be a half hour. I, you are so generous with your time when it comes to this. And I super appreciate it.
Fleet will save some lives and, uh, and that’d be safe. Um, and we’ll have the next time next, next pound when you’re ready.
And, uh, and where did, where do find you
online or wherever anywhere else if they want to get in touch,
if they want to send me a message, uh, uh, Fred brown.com is fine. Fred dot Brown dot COVID at Gmail is another one you can reach me at, uh, feel free to ask any questions you want. I’ll, I’ll be happy to answer them.
Outstanding. Fred, thank you for, um, making things a little less confusing. We appreciate you once again. It’s a pleasure and we’ll see you soon looking forward to it. Thanks, sir. Yep. All right, well, let’s wrap it up. Well, we got to do a dishes. Well, I mean, I forget we do that after we were done with the live stream. Oh, fair enough. Yeah. Hey, we’re going to wrap things up for episode three 51 on behalf of a like thank Fred Brown for shedding, some light on this whole COVID madness on behalf of Bob, Dave, David, Randy, do us all a favor. Drink. I’ll be drinks. Get your phone numbers. You don’t gotta go home. You just gotta get the hell out of here. See you next week. Drive. Careful beat it. Alright. See you guys. Thanks guys.
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